I've always thought it was about the former--due to the bulk of the merchandise being Santas, snowmen, and reindeer. Heck, I still have my letters from Santa. And of course, let's not forget about the songs about them, too. I've always thought that there were more songs about Santa, snowmen, and reindeer, than Jesus' birth.
But my sister thinks otherwise. She tells me that without Jesus, there'd be no Santa.